http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=aone&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
Swing.
Battery.
10/26: drop -8.09%@20.57
support @20.26, @19.80
Lowest@16.56
Highest@28.2
Monday, October 26, 2009
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Black Friday 10/2/09
Stock market should down again, but not in Thursday scale. Maybe half, but individual stock may drop a lot, i.e. 10%.
Tight stop and sell some position.
Tight stop and sell some position.
Biggest drop in 3 months
Dow S&P 500 Nasdaq | 9,509.28 | -203.00 | (-2.09%) | |
| 1,029.85 | -27.23 | (-2.58%) | |
| 2,057.48 | -64.94 | (-3.06%) |
Unemployment claim and manufacture index killed market. pay attention to them.
| Thu Oct 1 | 7:30am | USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y |  | -30.2% | -13.8% |  | ||
| 8:30am | USD | Unemployment Claims | | 551K | 532K | 534K  | | ||
| 8:30am | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | | ||
| 8:30am | USD | Personal Spending m/m | | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | | ||
| 8:30am | USD | Personal Income m/m | | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | | ||
| 9:00am | USD | Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies | | | | ||||
| 10:00am | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | | 52.6 | 53.9 | 52.9 | | ||
| 10:00am | USD | Pending Home Sales m/m | | 6.4% | 0.9% | 3.2% | | ||
| 10:00am | USD | Construction Spending m/m | | 0.8% | -0.1% | -1.1% | | ||
| 10:00am | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | | 63.5 | 66.1 | 65.0 | | ||
| 10:30am | USD | Natural Gas Storage | | 64B | 62B | 67B | | ||
| All Day | USD | Total Vehicle Sales | | 9.2M | 9.9M | 14.1M | | ||
| 5:30pm | USD | FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks | | | |
Tight stop and be sidewalk.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Fri -7-24-09 up
Long and mid term market may change.
| 9,093.24 | +23.95 | (0.26%) | |
| 979.26 | +2.97 | (0.30%) | |
| 1,965.96 | -7.64 | (-0.39%) |
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Thur 7-23-09 UUUP
Bull market is here.
| 9,069.29 | +188.03 | (2.12%) | |
| 976.29 | +22.22 | (2.33%) | |
| 1,973.60 | +47.22 | (2.45%) |
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
nice ruleR
一位高手悟出的炒股铁律，照着做，富可敌国
2、在上升轨的下沿买进股票，然后持有，到上升轨发生明显的变化，卖出。
3、局面复杂看不清的股票，千万不要进去，柿子捡软的捏，炒股也一样。
4、不要把所有的钱一次性买进同一只股票，即便你非常看好它，而且事后证明你是对的，也不要一次性买进。总有可能买得更低，或者有更好的机会买进。
5、如果误买了下降通道的股票，赶紧卖出，避免损失扩大。
6、如果没有损失，也赶紧退出观望。
7、不是上升通道的股票，根本不要看。管它将来怎么样，不要陪主力去建仓。没时间陪他们耗着。
8、赢钱时加仓，输钱时减码，如果你不想死的快而想赚得块，这是唯一的方法。
9、不要相信业绩，那只代表过去，不代表将来。
10、炒股是炒将来，不是过去。
11、不要幻想老是去做短线，每天进进出出。频繁进出，可能给你带来快感，但会让你损失很多的钱，唯一受益的是证券公司，而且你不会有那么高的水准，你也不是庄家。
不要买太多的股票，最好不要超过五只。你没有那么多精力看着她们。如果你想娶五个老婆，即便你身体够好，你也满足不了你的老婆们。韦小宝的故事只发生在小说里。
12、股票很便宜了，跌了很多了，不是你买入的理由，永远不是！！！他还可能更加便宜！！！！
13、股票很贵了，涨了很多了，也不是你拒绝买入或者卖出的理由。他还可能涨得更高！！！！！
怎样用OPTION套利 (二)...The butterfly spread
The butterfly spread是一个中立的期权交易策略,有一个bull spread 和bear spread组合而成。
这是一个利润有限、风险有限的OPTION交易策略。 有3种结算价的OPTION参与这个组合。
只有简单的买卖CALL组成（或者PUT组成）。
| Butterfly Spread 的结构： |
| Buy 1 ITM Call Sell 2 ATM Calls Buy 1 OTM Call ( Long Call Butterfly Spread ) OR， Buy 1 ITM Put Sell 2 ATM Put |
Buy 1 OTM Put
( Long Put Butterfly Spread )
Long butterfly spreads 是投资者认为股票不会上涨，或者也不会下跌多少的情况下运用。
在OPTION过期前。用简单的CALL去组合一个long Call Butterfly。
买一个低价的ITM（ in-the-money）的CALL，再买一个高一些的高价的OTM（out-of-the-money）的CALL。
写两个ATM（at-the-money）的CALL：既卖出两个ATM的CALL。卖出的两个CALL的收益减出买一个高、一个低结算价格的CALL就是你的净收益。
The butterfly spread 有限的收益：
butterfly spread 最大利润是当股票价格在到期时仍然不变的情况下。 在这一价格,只有低结算价格的CALL在到期的时候是 ATM的有价值的。 其它都作废。
计算公式最高利润如下:
Max Profit = Strike Price of Short Call - Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call - Net Premium Paid - Commissions Paid Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Short Calls
The butterfly spread 最大损失：
The butterfly spread 最大损失是卖两个ATM的CALL所得的收入与交易佣金。
计算公式是最大损失如下:
- Max Loss = Net Premium Paid + Commissions Paid
- Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call OR Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Long Call
盈亏平衡点
2盈亏平衡点的至收支平衡计算：可以使用以下公式。
- Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Higher Strike Long Call - Net Premium Paid
- Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call + Net Premium Paid
举例说明：
假如ABC在6月的股票交易价格在40美元。 一个期权交易者执行了一个long call butterfly：
购买一个合约JULY的股票价格30的CALL花了1100美元。
写了两个JULY结算价格为40美元的每个合约400美元。
再买了另外一个JULY的结算价格在50的CALL。花了100美元。
在这个交易组合中除了购买两个CALL外，你的净收入是800美元。
你最大可能的损失就是失去这800美元。
如果在JULY过期的时候：股票依然是40。40、50的CALL都过期一文不值。
那么结算价格在30的CALL还有1000元的内在价值。你开始收入的800美元减去购买50的CALL花费100和30的CALL的交易退出损失100。你最大的收益是600。
导致最大损失的结果是在JULY过期的时候，股票在30以下或者50以上。
在30以下JULY过期的时候，所以的OPTION一文不值。
在50以上，所有的来自与30、50的CALL的利润都要被卖出的两个CALL中减掉。
这两种情况，the butterfly trader 都要忍受被交出来自于卖CALL的收益。
那么怎样处理这种你不愿意看到的局面呢？
做Short Butterfly！做一个相反的 butterfly spread ！空 butterfly spread 的策略是应对于股票在市场高波动的时候。而与之相反：上诉的情况股票在30以下，50以上你都获得收益。
谢谢批评指正！Sunny. Yu. -22--7-2009
Thur 7-22-09 Down
Finally small pull back. For remaining week maybe pig or small pull back.
NASDAQ is so strong!
NASDAQ is so strong!
| 8,881.26 | -34.68 | (-0.39%) | |
| 954.07 | -0.51 | (-0.05%) | |
| 1,926.38 | +10.18 | (0.53%) |
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Tu 7-21-09 Up
Unbelievable, up again!
Next two week should be pig. wait August to over 1000 for SPX.
Next two week should be pig. wait August to over 1000 for SPX.
| 8,915.94 | +67.79 | (0.77%) | |
| 954.58 | +3.45 | (0.36%) | |
| 1,916.20 | +6.91 | (0.36%) |
怎样用OPTION稳定获利---The iron butterfly spread
The iron butterfly spread
是一种风险有限,利润有限的期权交易策略。根据股票波动设计的四种同时进行的OPTION交易。
尽可能增加利润减少股票贬值的风险。
The iron butterfly spread 的结构:
Buy 1 OTM Put、
Sell 1 ATM Put
Sell 1 ATM Call
Buy 1 OTM Call
具体操作:
购买一个低价格的OTM的PUT，卖一个中价位的ATM的PUT。
卖一个中等价位的ATM的CALL，再买一个教高一点价位的OTM的CALL。
交易的结果是卖PUT 和CALL的收入远远多于买PUT和CALL所花的资金。
所以帐户上有净得收益。
iron butterfly有限利润的计算：
当股票价格在等于卖出的CALL和PUT的价格时，买卖的所有四支OPTION作废。卖CALL和PUT的收入减去买CALL和PUT的资金就是净收入。
计算公式最高利润如下:
- Max Profit = Net Premium Received - Commissions Paid
- Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Short Call/Put
有限的风险
最大损失是有限的。如果出现的股票价格下跌到买的PUT的（STRICK）价格以下，或者是高于等于购买的CALL的（STRICK）价格以上。最大的损失等于执行两个交易减去卖出两个OPTION的收益。
计算公式是最大损失如下:
- Max Loss = Strike Price of Long Call - Strike Price of Short Call - Net Premium Received + Commissions Paid
- Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Long Call OR Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Long Put
iron butterfly有2盈亏平衡点： 计算以下公式。
- Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Short Call + Net Premium Received
- Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Short Put - Net Premium Received
例如：
AAPL的股票在六月初的交易是在140美元/股。 如果你设置一个iron butterfly：
买7月21日过期的130元/股的PUT付出500元，,写一7月过期的PUT在140日得3000元。
在写一个在7月过期的140元的CALL得3000元。买一个7月过期的CALL在150元，付出500元。 交易净收入是$5000。这是你最大利润。 在期7月过期。、AAPL股票交易仍然是140元。 所有4支OPTION毫无价值商。你净收入5000美元。当然这是理想的状态。实际中的交易收入要根据实际情况而论。
如果AAPL是在$130以下到期日，所有的OPTION的CALL都一文不值。只有140元的PUT有内在价值10000元。$130的PUT价值5000。 这种情况选择购买回退出的贸易。 你需要买出130的PUT得5000，加上你上次收入的5000。买回140的PUT。推出交易。因此,你将蒙受其最大可能元的损失5000。 这一最大损失情况也出现的股票价格已上升至150元以上。你的损失是做功了，没有收益。
付出了交易费用。
=======注明: AAPL只是用来说明怎样买卖,价格只是用来好计算的.=====================
手续费对OPTION交易影响很大。在这个完整的iron butterfly交易中有四支OPTION。交易的费用也是一笔不小的开支。所以现在大多数人只做简单的butterfly。只做2条腿的butterfly。
以后在继续，如果有人愿意看的话。
谢谢指正，但请不要转贴。如要转请著名出处。谢谢！
Monday, July 20, 2009
Triangles
on triangles, there are 2 types: trend continuation and trend reversal
trend continuation: ascending, descending, symmetrical, and expanding
reversal: wedge (ET, LT)
the main difference is the direction of the 2 lines of the triangle if both point to same direction then it is a reversal type. please the attached chart. the top one is a ET /LT type, others are continuation.
trend continuation: ascending, descending, symmetrical, and expanding
reversal: wedge (ET, LT)
the main difference is the direction of the 2 lines of the triangle if both point to same direction then it is a reversal type. please the attached chart. the top one is a ET /LT type, others are continuation.
the next step in finding a ET is to put is in a context of higher degree and see if it makes sense
it is either in C of a correction or 5 of an impulsive
it is either in C of a correction or 5 of an impulsive
哪里进来哪里出去 applies to continuation type triangles
since triangle can not be in wave 2, so it is either wave 4 or wave B
for your posted chart, since the 2 lines converging not to the same direction it was possible at that time it is a continuation type triangle.
the following chart is wrong, because the A of the ABCDE of this triangle is not right. many people make this mistake, and you would be careful with this since you have to get the A right to apply the rule of 哪里进来哪里出去
since triangle can not be in wave 2, so it is either wave 4 or wave B
for your posted chart, since the 2 lines converging not to the same direction it was possible at that time it is a continuation type triangle.
the following chart is wrong, because the A of the ABCDE of this triangle is not right. many people make this mistake, and you would be careful with this since you have to get the A right to apply the rule of 哪里进来哪里出去
the right drawing is the attached chart
the ABCDE subwaves are in pink color and the IN and OUT of the triangle are in blue color
the ABCDE subwaves are in pink color and the IN and OUT of the triangle are in blue color
MON 7-20-09 UP
another up days, seems endless.
| 8,848.15 | +104.21 | (1.19%) | |
| 951.13 | +10.75 | (1.14%) | |
| 1,909.29 | +22.68 | (1.20%) |
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Thur 7-16-09 UP
Another up day!
There is no way index to up tomorrow.
| 8,711.82 | +95.61 | (1.11%) | |
| 940.74 | +8.06 | (0.86%) | |
| 1,885.03 | +22.13 | (1.19%) |
There is no way index to up tomorrow.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Wed 7-14-09 UP
All index up alot with the help from Intel, FED bullish econ forecast.
QQQQ above 37 and SPY above 93.
Tomorrow will be another up date and then Friday will be pig.
| 8,616.21 | +256.72 | (3.07%) | |
| 932.68 | +26.84 | (2.96%) | |
| 1,862.90 | +63.17 | (3.51%) |
QQQQ above 37 and SPY above 93.
Tomorrow will be another up date and then Friday will be pig.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Intel Q2 earning good
Tomorrow QQQQ may reach 36.5 and SPY may reach 92. And may above 36 and 90 in ER, but after ER. Market should continue the down trend
Tu 7-14-09 up
Another up date. Tomorrow may be final push
Dow S&P 500 Nasdaq 
Dow S&P 500 Nasdaq | 8,359.49 | +27.81 | (0.33%) | |
| 905.84 | +4.79 | (0.53%) | |
| 1,799.73 | +6.52 | (0.36%) |
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Thur 7-2-09
Wed 7-1-09
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Tu 6-30-09
Monday, June 29, 2009
PCX
Purchase PCX@6.19 stop 5.8 Target 8.14 -0.39 vs 1.95 500% -6%vs32%
-up from 5 to 6 with big volume in early May.
-down from 10 to 6 with reduced volume.
- $5.87 is 38.2%.
- High 10.9 and low 2.76
-up from 5 to 6 with big volume in early May.
-down from 10 to 6 with reduced volume.
- $5.87 is 38.2%.
- High 10.9 and low 2.76
Mon 6/28/09
| Dow | 8,529.38 | +90.99 (1.08%) |
| S&P 500 | 927.23 | +8.33 (0.91%) |
| Nasdaq | 1,844.06 | +5.84 (0.32%) |
Index up about 1%, Nasdaq only about 0.3%. All up are done around 10:00 to 11:00. Basically market waiting July for actual moving. July should be down.
SPX 930 should be resistance.
Build August or Sept SPY 90, QQQQ 35 put. No more July put.
24条永恒的规则 --江恩
- 要使用的资本量.将你的资本分成10等分,而且永不在一次交易中拿超过10分之1的资本去冒险.
- 用止损单.永远用离你成交价3-5点处的止损单保护交易.
- 永不过度交易.这会违反你的资本规则.
- 永不让赢利变成损失.一旦你获得了3点或更多的利润,提高你的止损单.
- 不要逆势而为.如果你根据走势图无法确定趋势,就永不买卖.
- 拿不准的时候就退出,而且不要在拿不准的时候入市.
- 只在活跃的股票中交易.
- 均摊风险.如果可能的话,交易4-5中股票.
- 用市价委托.
- 没有好的理由就不要平仓.
- 累积盈余,以备在紧急情况下使用.
- 永不仅为了一次分红而买进股票.
- 永不因为失去耐心而出市,也不因急不可耐而入市.
- 永不均分损失.
- 避免赢小利而亏大钱.
- 永不撤消你在交易时已经设置的止损单.
- 避免出入市过于频繁.
- 象你愿意买那样愿意放空.
- 永不仅因为股价低而买入.
- 小心在错误的时候加码.
- 挑选小盘股做多,挑选大盘股放空.
- 永不对冲.
- 没有好的理由,永不在市场中改变你的立场.
- 避免在长期的成功后增加交易.
Friday, June 26, 2009
FRI 6-26-09
Thursday, June 25, 2009
6-25-09 Palm
Jump more than 13% after market. Hope Pre will save Palm.
If break 15, next will be $17.5
If break 15, next will be $17.5
Thur 6-25-09
Dow 8,472.40 +172.54 (2.08%)
S&P 500 920.27 +19.33 (2.15%)
Nasdaq 1,829.54 +37.20 (2.08%)
10y bond 3.68% +0.05 (1.38%)
The day after Fed meeting. All index up about 2%. next week may have half year window dressing. May build Aug, Sep put spread in that period.
QQQQ may reach 37 and SPY may 94.
Major blue not move a lot, but small cap up a lot.
Reduce 401K and will continue in next week. Until reach 10%
S&P 500 920.27 +19.33 (2.15%)
Nasdaq 1,829.54 +37.20 (2.08%)
10y bond 3.68% +0.05 (1.38%)
The day after Fed meeting. All index up about 2%. next week may have half year window dressing. May build Aug, Sep put spread in that period.
QQQQ may reach 37 and SPY may 94.
Major blue not move a lot, but small cap up a lot.
Reduce 401K and will continue in next week. Until reach 10%
Thur 6-25-09
The day after Fed meeting. All index up about 2%. next week may have half year window dressing. May build Aug, Sep put spread in that period.
QQQQ may reach 37 and SPY may 94.
QQQQ may reach 37 and SPY may 94.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Wed 6-24-09
| Dow | 8,299.86 | -23.05 (-0.28%) |
| S&P 500 | 900.94 | +5.84 (0.65%) |
| Nasdaq | 1,792.34 | +27.42 (1.55%) |
| 10y bond | 3.70% | +0.06 (1.65%) |
Today there is Fed meeting. Estimate no change in Interest Rate, may have some comments on Econ. Basically said, econ not tank and pick up slowly. Market should not have a big reaction.
update: 4:00 p.m. No big surprise. Fed meeting impact became less important.
Today new home number not good. Down rather than up as expect.
Oracle post down revenue, but margin meet wall street. Stock up 7%.
Gordon expect big drop in mid July.
Will build put spread for Aug, Sept, Dec.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Option June 09
OE day, all major indexes and stocks up a lot.
But next Monday, all sell off. Big sell off.
But next Monday, all sell off. Big sell off.
Monday 6/22/09 Market
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